Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2025-03-20 Origin: Site
二、Current foreign trade situation
Currently, factors such as weak global economic recovery, sluggish market demand, rising trade protectionism, restructuring of international supply chains, and increasing raw material costs have all brought more challenges to China's lighting foreign trade exports.
（1）The changing factors in the foreign trade environment have increased
After the new US government took office, it adhered to the principle of prioritizing the United States and continuously brought new uncertainties to the world through trade restriction measures such as increasing tariffs, anti-dumping, and anti subsidy investigations, further disrupting the global trade pattern and increasing trade frictions between different parts of the world.On February 1, 2025, the US government announced the imposition of a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods imported to the US, citing issues such as fentanyl, which officially came into effect on February 4. The tariffs imposed by the United States this time involve all 59 tax codes of lighting products in China, and the tax rate range after the tariffs is between 12% and 47.5%.Since the start of the Sino US trade dispute in 2018, China's exports of lighting products to the United States have shown a fluctuating trend. Among them, in 2019, China's exports of lighting products to the United States decreased by about 13%. After a brief recovery during the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 and 2021, it will decline again from 2022, and the decline will further expand to 16% in 2023. Although the reduction rate will slow down to 1% in 2024, the further imposition of tariffs by the United States has once again disrupted the stability of global supply chains and market supply and demand.
（2）Enhanced support for foreign trade
In response to changes in the external environment, since September 2024, multiple departments of the Chinese government have successively introduced a package of incremental policies to boost market confidence and solidify the foundation for economic stabilization and recovery. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December last year made clear arrangements for "expanding high-level opening up to the outside world, stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment". Subsequent policies to stabilize foreign trade and promote growth will provide strong support for the high-quality development of China's foreign trade.Recently, the State Council held an executive meeting to study the relevant work of boosting consumption; The Ministry of Commerce held a national conference on foreign trade work, emphasizing the need to strengthen confidence, adhere to goal oriented and problem oriented approaches, have a clear understanding of the complexity and severity of the foreign trade situation, make every effort to stabilize foreign trade growth, expand new forms of trade such as cross-border e-commerce, and help enterprises explore international markets. The State Administration of Taxation has recently issued a notice on supporting the development of overseas warehouses for cross-border e-commerce exports, clarifying the issues related to export tax refunds (exemptions) for taxpayers exporting goods through overseas warehouses (customs supervision code "9810"), further leveraging the positive role of export tax refunds in supporting the development of overseas warehouses for cross-border e-commerce exports (hereinafter referred to as "export overseas warehouses"), and providing guarantees for the industry's development this year. From the perspective of monetary policy, under the tone of "moderate easing", it is expected that the central bank will continue to implement reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2025, maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity and strong support for the real economy. The introduction of these favorable policies has also provided good policy support for the stable development of China's lighting industry.
三、Outlook for the Export of Lighting Industry in 2025
In 2025, the export of China's lighting industry will also face a major challenge. Although there are many unfavorable factors, there are also opportunities in the midst of danger. It is expected that the foreign trade market of China's lighting industry will still be under pressure in 2025, but overall it will maintain a stable trend.
（1）The international community sends positive signals
The World Trade Organization (WTO) expects a moderate expansion of global trade, with a 3.0% increase in world commodity trade volume by 2025, and inflation may fall. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) autumn report predicts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% by 2025. From a macro perspective, factors such as the recovery of the international economy, trade transfer, and the upward trend of the global manufacturing cycle can to some extent alleviate the impact of trade frictions.
（2）Enterprises actively strive for a good start
According to our association's research, after the end of the Spring Festival holiday, industry enterprises have started production and resumed production one after another. Most large and medium-sized export enterprises have reported that their order situation has remained stable compared to the same period last year. To avoid the impact of tariffs imposed by the United States, small and medium-sized enterprises in some industrial clusters experienced a small surge in export orders before the Spring Festival. Some upstream enterprises in the chip packaging industry chain have also experienced a backlog of orders before and after the Spring Festival. Enterprises are actively starting work and resuming production to compete for a good start.
（3）Expand new ideas for overseas development
Since last year, going abroad has become an important choice for many enterprises to achieve stable development. In addition to simply transferring production capacity overseas to avoid tariffs, more enterprises are aiming to be closer to consumer groups, more convenient to obtain high-end talents, and more vigorously establish brand image. They are going abroad in various forms to expand new overseas development. From the perspective of the overseas development of sister industries such as home appliances in 2024, the demand for China's electromechanical products in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East remains strong. The high cost-effectiveness and related services of China's products have been favored by local markets. Therefore, digging deep into the local market demand will provide new growth momentum for China's lighting industry's foreign trade. Enterprises engaged in lighting design, engineering construction and other related fields also need to actively seek growth in overseas markets, becoming a new direction for expanding overseas development in the lighting field.
Faced with a complex external environment, China's lighting foreign trade enterprises need to fully leverage their own advantages, actively adjust their strategies, and achieve steady development. On the one hand, we should take technological innovation as the guide, actively develop new products around popular sub sectors such as roads, landscapes, low-carbon, agriculture, etc., enhance the high-end, green, and intelligent level of products, continuously improve the technical content and added value of products, improve internal strength, and create products and brands with core competitiveness to cope with various challenges brought by trade protectionism. On the other hand, we should attach great importance to optimizing supply chain management, actively explore emerging markets, reduce dependence on single markets and suppliers, and diversify market risks; Consolidate traditional markets, establish long-term stable cooperative relationships, jointly cope with various uncertain factors in the supply chain, and ensure the stability and smoothness of the supply chain. In addition, in addition to product exports, Chinese foreign trade enterprises also need to follow the footsteps of the country's overseas investment and construction, actively participate in the construction of lighting engineering projects led by Chinese enterprises in emerging markets such as leading countries, adjust China's lighting export methods, and shift from the past single product export to "product+service" export.
